Herwin Sutrisno, Theresia Susi, Singgih Hartanto, Andhy Pasang, Indra Arianoor, Denry Dinon, Trida Ridho Fariz
Rapid urbanization poses substantial environmental challenges, particularly in ecologically sensitive peatland regions such as Pulang Pisau Regency, Central Kalimantan. This study aims to analyze spatio-temporal land cover change and urban expansion in Kahayan Hilir District between 2008 and 2025, and to project future development up to 2039 using a Cellular Automata (CA)-based modeling framework. Multi-temporal land cover maps were generated from satellite imagery and integrated with accessibility-based driving factors, including distance to roads and existing built-up areas. Transition probabilities were modeled using both Logistic Regression (LR) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), and model performance was evaluated through validation against observed land cover in 2025. The results indicate a substantial increase in built-up areas from 394.66 ha in 2008 to 1,002.28 ha in 2025, representing an overall growth of 153.96%. The validated LR-based CA model outperformed ANN (Kappa = 0.6) in capturing the predominantly linear urban growth pattern aligned with road networks. Projections suggest that built-up areas will expand to 3,759.93 ha by 2039, with growth concentrated on shallow peatlands and limited encroachment into deeper peat zones, raising concerns regarding peat subsidence and carbon emissions. Overall, this study demonstrates that integrating CA with Logistic Regression provides an effective and replicable approach for modeling urban expansion in tropical peatland landscapes. The findings provide a robust scientific basis for adaptive spatial planning and peat-sensitive urban management, supporting sustainable development strategies in Central Kalimantan's peat-dominated regions. IJASEIT is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International License.
Postgraduate Program, Universitas Palangka Raya, Central Kalimantan, Palangka Raya, Indonesia; Public Works and Spatial Planning Department, Central Papua, Nabire, Indonesia; Murung Raya District Regional Secretariat, Central Kalimantan, Puruk Cahu, Indonesia; Department of Public Works and Spatial Planning, Murung Raya Regency, Central Kalimantan, Puruk Cahu, Indonesia; Environmental Science Study Program, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Negeri Semarang, Central Java, Semarang, Indonesia
