Gustian, Putriaji Hendikawati, Iqbal Kharisudin
Climate change and global warming are phenomena that are currently occurring throughout the world, caused by various factors that can have a negative impact on human life. Currently, Indonesia is ranked 14th in the country with the worst air quality in the world. Semarang, one of the big cities in Indonesia that is busy with transportation and industrial activities, has air quality that falls into the unhealthy air category for sensitive groups. This research aims to model and predict air quality in the city of Semarang based on variables that influence air quality, namely the Air Quality Index (AQI), pollutant levels NO2, O3, PM10, and PM2.5. Data analysis was carried out using Vector Autoregressive. The research results show that the VAR model with lag 1 is a stationary and stable model for modeling air quality indicator data. There is a significant and positive relationship between pollutant values in the previous period and current pollutant values. Apart from that, it is known that there is a causal relationship between the variables PM2.5, PM10, NO2, and AQI and O3. © 2025 Author(s).
Applied Statistics and Computation, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Negeri Semarang, Semarang, Indonesia; Statistics and Data Science, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Negeri Semarang, Semarang, Indonesia
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